In part one of our analyses we looked at how parliamentary candidates of the two leading parties in Ghana; the governing National Democratic Congress and the opposition New Patriotic Party, are likely to fare in the upcoming December polls in the Greater Accra, Central, Upper East and Upper West regions.
Our conclusions were based on past analyzed results of parliamentary elections, particularly, the 2012 election results, and also, the current happenings in the two parties in each of the constituencies in the four aforementioned regions. We also forecasted seats that are likely to swing and those the two major parties can consider as safe seats going into this year’s polls.
Expectedly, the first part of the series attracted mix reactions from candidates and activists of the two dominant parties in the various constituencies. Whereas candidates of both parties in constituencies tipped to swing in their favor hailed the report as true reflection of the reality on the ground, those the tide was against either rejected the report and/or accepted it and promised to work on deficiencies identified in their campaign ahead of December 7.
In constituencies where the report concluded that the outcome of this year’s election will not be different from the 2012, those the report favored rejoiced over it while those it was against have harshly criticized it.
In all, reactions from constituencies in the four regions surveyed in the first part of this study indicate that the report has indeed arouse the collective consciousness of candidates of the two main political parties as well as; candidates of the smaller parties and even independent parliamentary aspirants. This, according to information reaching us, has jolted all candidates to intensify their campaigns in order to avoid any political calamity befalling them.
In this second part, our radar focuses on three regions; Northern, Eastern and Western regions. Just like other regions covered, these three regions have also; very interesting voting pattern that could determine the outcome of this year’s election and/or, which party forms the majority in parliament.
Interestingly, both Presidential Candidates and Vice Presidential Candidates of the two leading parties, the NDC and the NPP, either hail from one of these three regions or have ties with them. Whereas sitting President, John Dramani Mahama, candidate of the ruling NDC, hails from the Northern region, his fiercest opponent, Nana Akufo-Addo, of the opposition NPP, is a native of the Eastern region.
On the other hand, the NPP’s Vice Presidential Candidate, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia hails from the same region as President Mahama whiles the NDC vice Presidential Candidate, Mr Paa Kwesi Amissah Arthur, though, a native of Central region, but has strong ties in the Western region.
The methodology for this second part of the report still remains the same. The only variation is that we will be measuring the strength and influence of the two presidential candidates and their running mates in their respective native regions to determine how that could affect the outcome of the parliamentary results.
Among the 10 regions in Ghana, the Northern region stood out in the last election to have recorded the highest “skirt and blouse” votes. Skirt and blouse is a voting pattern where a voter either votes for a party’s presidential candidate but votes for another part’s parliamentary candidate or vice versa.
Since the start of the Fourth Republic in 1992, the Northern region has been rated second to the Volta region in terms of bloc votes for the ruling NDC. In 2000 and 2004 when the NDC lost the elections, the region still voted overwhelmingly for the party.
The opposition NPP has never won majority votes and seats in this region. But the party has managed over the years to better its performance in the region. Hitherto, the region was a no-go-area for the biggest opposition party. Indeed, there were places in the Northern region where until recently the NPP could not mount their flags not to talk of campaigning.
Except the 1996 elections, the NPP has since 1992 nominated its running mates from the Northern region. The NDC, on the other hand, had Northern running mates for the 2004 and 2008 elections.
However, ahead of the 2012 election, the ruling party acclaimed then ‘acting’ President Mahama, a Northerner, as its presidential candidate. This was as a result of the tragic death of President John Mills.
But, parliamentary results from the Northern region after the 2012 polls show that, in spite of President Mahama being declared the overall winner of the elections, his party, the NDC’s fortunes in terms of parliamentary seats dwindled even though the party improved on its records in the presidential elections.
The opposite of this was in the case of Dr Mahamudu Bawumia. Since his appointment as the NPP’s running mate in 2008, it was in the 2012 elections that Dr Bawumia asserted his influence as a Northerner; aiding his party’s fortune in the parliamentary elections.
presidential polls, the party increased its parliamentary seats in the region from the paltry three it garnered in the 2008 elections to 10 in the 2012 elections. This remarkable feat was attributed partly to Dr Bawumia’s relentless campaigning in the north ahead of the 2012 election.
Others have however rejected this theory, insisting that; the NPP profited from divisions in the NDC ranks in the region ahead of the elections to snatch those seats.
Presently, the NDC controls 19 seats; NPP, 10; CPP, 1 and one independent candidate. In the 2008 elections, the NPP won four seats; Bimbilla, Chereponi, Nanton and Zabzugu, but the party lost the Chereponi seat to the NDC in 2009 through a bye election. This brought the number of seats the party controlled ahead of the 2012 elections to 3.
In the 2012 elections, the NPP lost the Nanton seat to the NDC but made huge gains by winning Bunkprugu, Chereponi, Kpandai, Tatale Sanguli, Tolon, Walewale, Yagaba Kubore, Yendi in addition to Bimbilla and Zabzugu constituencies which they had won in 2008 election.
Surprisingly, except the Tatale Sanguli seat which was one of the 45 newly created seats ahead of the 2012 elections, the seven other seats the NPP won were snatched from the ruling NDC.
In this year’s election, the Northern regional branch of the NPP has vowed to increase it seats from 10 to 17. And as part of its strategy in achieving this target, the party in the region decided to allow some of its sitting MPs to go unopposed. This was done in order not to create divisions among party supporters in the constituencies ahead of this year’s election.
Some of the constituencies in which the party did not organize primaries included Bimbilla, Yendi, Kpandi and Chereponi. The rest are Bunkpurugu, Walewale and Yagba-Kobore. Primaries were however held in Tatale Sanguli, Zabzugu and Tolon. And in Tatale Sanguli constituency, for instance, the primary has left the party fractured.
The NDC has also pledged to recapture all the 31 seats in the Northern region. The Northern Regional Campaign Coordinator, Alhaji Limuna Muniru, blamed the loss of some seven seats that hitherto belonged to the National Democratic Congress on disunity, lack of coordination and inadequate resources.
“By our actions, we relinquished seven seats to the New Patriotic Party in 2012 with some internal wrangling but we are more united now and we will take back those seats in 2016,” he said. “There have been some reconciliation and each member now is more involved than before.”
“I have never failed in life and I am going to deliver all thirty-one seats in the region to the National Democratic Congress and ensure sixty per cent for John Dramani Mahama,” Alhaji Limuna Muniru added.
Out of the 31 seats in the Northern region, 15 seats are most likely to swing in this year’s election. NDC holds eight of these swing seats; Daboya/Mankarigu, Gushiegu, Mion, Nanton, Saboba, Wulensi, Nalerigu/Gambaga and Yapei/Kusawgu.
The NPP also has 6 of them; Chereponi, Bunkprugu, Tatale/Sanguli, Walewale, Yagaba/Kubori and Zabzugu. The CPP has one, Kumbungu and the last seat being the Tamale North constituency which is presently been occupied by an Independent candidate.
No Constituency NDC Candidate NPP Candidate
1 Bimbilla Dr. Joseph Manboah-Rockson Dominic Nitiwul
2 Bole Bamboi Yussif Sulemana Alele Veronica Ahening
3 Bunkprugu Dr Anthony Gingong Solomon Boa
4 Chereponi Samuel Abdulai Jabanyite Azumah Namoro Sanda
5 Daboya Mankarigu Mahama Shaibu Tika Samuel Yeyu
6 Damango Adam Mutawakilu Albert Kasim Diwura
7 Gushiegu Thomas Kwesi Nasah Dr. Ziblim Iddi
8 Karaga Alhassan Sualihu Dandaawa Basha Sharawi Yilfa
9 Kpandai Likpalimor Kwadwo Tawiah Mathew Nyidam
10 Kumbungu Ras Mubarak Mutaru Iddrisu
11 Mion Mohammed Abdul Aziz Mohammed Hashim Abdalla
12 Nalerigu Gambaga Issifu Seidu Hajia Alima Mahama
13 Nanton Ibrahim Mohammed Murtala Alhaji Mohammed H Tuferu
14 Saboba Bukari Nikpe Joseph Charles Binipom Bintim
15 Sagnarigu Alhaji A B A Fuseini Iddrisu Habib
16 Salaga North Alhassan Mumuni Alhaji Alhassan Abila
17 Salaga South Abubakari Ibrahim Dey Salifu Adam Braimah
18 Savelugu Abdulai Alhassan Red Mohammed Abdul S Gunu
19 Sawla/Tuna/Kalba Kalba-Chiwitey Dari Andrew James Kipo Sunyenzi
20 Tamale Central Alhaji Inusah Fuseini Dr. Barhama Ibrahim A. Imoro
21 Tamale North Alhaji Alhassan Suhuyini Hajia Kulsumi Mohammed
22 Tamale South Haruna Iddrisu Yakubu Yussif
23 Tatale Sanguli Tampi Acheampong Simon Thomas Nbomba
24 Tolon Umar A. Abdul Razaq Wahab Suhuyini Wumbei
25 Walewale Abdallah Abubakari Dr. Saagre Bambangi
26 Wulensi Laliri George Maban Thomas Donkor Ogajah
27 Yagaba Kubori Alhjai Abdul Rauf Tanko Yussif Mustapha
28 Yapei Kusawgu John Abdulai Jinapor Alhaji Yakubu Zakaria
29 Yendi Hamza Yahaya Alikali Alhaji Mohammed Habib Tijani
30 Yunyoo Joseph Bipoba Naabu Liwaal Oscar
31 Zabzugu Alhassan Umar Jabaah John Binnam
Bimbilla: This seat has alternated between the ruling NDC, NPP and PNC. But the NPP have had a lion share in terms of control of the seat. In 1992 when the NPP boycotted the parliamentary elections, Dr Mohammed Ibn Chambas was elected on the ticket of the NDC as the first MP for the area.
He was defeated in 1996 by a PNC candidate, George Mpambi Dagmanyi. Perhaps, undeterred by his defeat, Dr Chambas contested the 2000 election and won the Bimbilla seat for the NDC. He was however, through President Kufuor’s influence, appointed head of ECOWAS in 2002.
His seat was therefore declared vacant and in accordance with the constitution, a bye-election was organized which led to the election of NPP’s Dominic Nitiwul as MP for the constituency. Hon Nitiwul thus, has delivered the seat for his party in 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections.
As deputy Minority Leader, Hon Nitiwul was acclaimed in 2014 as NPP’s candidate for the area. His acclamation was part of elaborate plans by Northern regional executives of the NPP to allow some sitting MPs contest the election unopposed.
In this year’s election, Hon Nitiwul is facing stiff challenge from a stalwart of the NDC, Dr Joseph Manboah-Rockson who defeated four other candidates in 2015 to emerge the party’s candidate for the area. The NDC candidate is presently the acting managing Director of Ghana Supply Company Limited.
Northern regional executives of the NDC have vowed to end Hon Nitiwul’s stay in parliament in this year’s election. They have made “special provision” for winning the seat in this year’s election. As part of the party’s strategy to take the seat from the NPP, the regional campaign launch of the NDC was organized in the Bimbilla constituency. This, leadership of the party says, was done to whip up support for Dr Manboah-Rockson to upstage Hon Nitiwul.
In the 2012 elections, Hon Nitiwul won the seat with a margin of 13487 votes. All things been equal, he is most likely to retain the seat for the NPP.
Bole Bamboi: This constituency does not only serve as the ‘home’ constituency of President John Mahama, but also as a constituency the President represented in parliament on the ticket of the NDC for 12 years. Since 1992, the NDC has won all six parliamentary elections in this constituency.
In 2008, Hon Joseph Akati Saaka succeeded President Mahama as MP for the area following the appointment of Mr Mahama as running mate to late President Mills. Hon Saaka retained the seat for the NDC in the 2012 elections. In 2015 when the NDC opened nomination for parliamentary primary, Hon Saaka did not contest the election. The party elected an official of EDAIF, Mr Yussif Sulemana as the party’s candidate for this year’s election.
The NPP has also elected Madam Alele Veronica Ahening to battle the NDC candidate. The NPP in Bole Bamboi constituency has sworn to snatch the seat from the NDC for the first time. Despite petty squabbles in the NDC flowing from the constituency primary, the party is highly tipped to retain the seat.
Bunkprugu: Originally called the Bunkprugu-Yunyoo constituency, the Bunkprugu constituency is a stronghold of the NDC in the Northern region. The NDC has won four out of the six parliamentary elections in this constituency.
Mr Joseph Yaani Labik was elected the first MP for the area. He was succeeded by Mr Namburr Berrick in the 2000 elections. Mr Yaani Labik contested the 2004 election as an independent candidate and won. The NDC recaptured the seat in the 2008. In the 2012 election, Mr Solomon Namliit Boar made history by winning the seat for the NPP for the first time. The NPP candidate won with a margin of 680 votes.
In the 2012 elections, Mr Joseph Yaani Labik also contested as an independent and garnered over 6000 votes. The NDC’s primary ahead of that year’s election was also marred with confusion resulting in serious division in the party ahead the election.
Ahead of this year’s election, the NDC is again fraught with division arising from the primary. The Bunkprugu constituency NDC primary was delayed and only conducted in July this year following protracted legal suit initiated by one of the aspirants, Mr Namburr Berrick.
Dr Anthony Gingong has been elected NDC’s candidate to battle with the incumbent NPP MP, Hon Solomon Boah. Based on results of the last election, the seat may swing to the NDC in this year’s election. But the division in the ruling party in the constituency may affect its chances of recapturing the seat. In 2012 when the NPP candidate won, President Mahama defeated Nana Akufo-Addo with a margin of over 8000 votes.
This suggests that the NPP profited from the division in the NDC ahead of the 2012 elections. The NDC can win the seat with ease if it irons out its difficulties ahead of the December 7 elections. But it appears the NDC may not be able to bury the hatchets ahead of the election.
Mr Namburr Berrick, who lost the primary to Dr Anthony Gingong, has filed to contest the election as an independent candidate. He is most likely to split the votes and this will play to the advantage of the NPP candidate.
Chereponi: This constituency is one of the swing constituencies in the Northern region. It has alternated between the NDC and NPP since the start of the Fourth Republic. The NDC held the seat from 1992 until 2004 when the party lost it to the NPP.
The NPP retained the seat in the 2008 elections but lost it in 2009 to the NDC in a by-election. The biggest opposition party however came back strongly in 2012 and managed to recapture the seat with a margin of 1115 votes. The closeness of the election and giving the fact that no one party has strong holding on this seat suggest that it could again swing to the NDC in this year’s election. However, it will also not be strange if the NPP retains it. In this year’s election, the battle is between the incumbent NPP MP, Hon Azumah Namoro Sanda and former NDC MP, Hon Samuel Abdulai Jabanyite.
Daboya/Mankarigu: This is one of the 45 seats created ahead of the 2012 elections. This constituency came about as a result of the splitting of the Damango/Daboya constituency. Hon Baani Abudu Nelson made history by winning it for the NDC with a margin of 1603 votes, and thus became the first MP to be elected for the area.
Ahead of the December polls, the NDC delegates ditched Hon Baani Abudu Nelson for Private legal practitioner with the Savannah Accelerated Development Authority (SADA), Mahama Shaibu Obei.
The NPP, on the hand, has reelected its defeated 2012 parliamentary candidate, Mr Tika Samuel Yeyu, as its 2016 candidate. Mr Yeyu is said to be banking hopes on the closeness of the 2012 election results and the petty squabbles in the ruling NDC flowing from the primary to do magic for him in winning the seat for the NPP. As it stands now any of the two leading parties can win the seat.
Damango: Orgininally called the Damango/Daboya constituency, this constituency is one of the strongholds of the ruling NDC. Damango is a small constituency with a voter population a little over 20000. When the Damngo constituency was created ahead of the 2012 election, then DCE for the area, Hon Adam Mutawakilu won it for the NDC with a margin of 2477 votes.
Hon Mutawakilu has been reelected to represent the NDC in this year’s election. He was elected unopposed. Prior to his election, Minister of Agriculture, Alhaji Muniru Limuna announced his intention to challenge Hon Mutawakilu at the primary. This sharply divided the constituency with fears that the NDC may not be able to mend it differences after the primary.
However, Alhaji Limuna was to subsequently pull out of the race, leaving Hon Mutawakilu to go into the contest as unopposed candidate of the ruling party. On the reasons for his withdrawal from the Damango NDC primary, the Minister said “I saw what was coming and I decided that for the sake of unity, I Muniru will not allow anyone to die because I want to become MP.’’
The NPP on the other hand has replaced its 2012 candidate with Mr Laliri George Maban. But from all indications, Hon Mutawakilu will once again go pass the NPP candidate to retain the seat for the ruling NDC.
Gushiegu: This seat has rotated between the NDC and NPP but the former has had the lion share in terms of its control. In the 2012 election, the NDC’s Kwesi Thomas Nasah retained it with a margin of 337 votes. Many have said the closeness of the result in the Gushiegu constituency in the last election indicates that the NDC’s control of the seat is likely to end in this year’s election.
Many have said that the incumbent NDC MP has lost touch with the electorates and must be changed. Unfortunately for the NDC, Hon Kwesi Thomas Nasah was reelected to contest again on the party’s ticket in the upcoming December elections.
Hon Kwesi Thomas Nasah is facing a stiff challenge from a Political Science Lecturer at the University of Ghana, Dr. Ziblim Iddi, who was elected in 2014 as the NPP’s candidate. Happenings in this constituency suggest the seat may swing back to the NPP.
Karaga: Since its creation in 2004, the NDC has won all elections conducted in this constituency. In the 2012 election, the NDC’s Alhassan Sualihu Dandaawa retained the seat with a margin of 2541 votes. In this year’s election, he will lock horns with a newly elected parliamentary candidate for the NPP, Basha Sharawi Yilfa.
Although the NPP over the years has improved on its electoral fortunes in the constituency, the party is not likely to win the seat in this year’s election.
Kpandai: This constituency is one of the constituencies in the Northern region that recorded skirt and blouse voting in the last election. Though President Mahama defeated Nana Akufo-Addo with a margin of 7771 votes in this constituency in the 2012 polls, the then incumbent NDC MP, Likpalimor Kwadwo Tawiah lost.
He was whipped by NPP’s Mathew Nyidam with a margin 2427 votes. The 2012 election was the first time the NPP won this seat. Though Hon Likpalimor’s defeat was linked to his declining popularity ahead of the polls, the strength of an Independent parliamentary candidate, Alfred Donkor Odzidzator, also contributed to his lost.
The Independent candidate polled 7795 votes out of the total votes cast. Hon Likpalimor has since been reelected to lead the NDC into this year’s election again. He has vowed to redeem his image by recapturing his seat.
The incumbent NPP MP, Hon Mathew Nyidam has also vowed to retire the veteran NDC former MP. But indications are that the NPP’s control of the seat is being threatened by Hon Likpalimor’s reelection. The veteran NDC former law maker is reported to have ironed out his differences with party officials and supporters who despised him ahead of the 2012 elections.
The NDC, through Minister of Employment, Hon Haruna Iddrisu, has managed to get one of the defeated parliamentary candidate aspirants, Mr Daniel Nsala Wakpal, to rescind his decision to contest the election as an independent candidate.
Kumbungu: If there is any seat in the Northern region which the NDC will most likely recapture on December 7, it is no other than the Kumbungu seat. The NDC was in control of the seat until 2013 when CPP’s Mr Amadu Yahya won it in a bye election.
The Kumbungu seat became vacant as a result of the resignation of then Member of Parliament, Alhaji Mohammed Mumuni to take up the position of General Secretary of the African, Caribbean, and Pacific Group of States.
The NPP did not field candidate for the 2013 bye election. This, many say, contributed to the CPP’s victory over the NDC. In this year’s election, the NDC has elected Chief Executive Officer of the National Youth Authority, Ras Mubarak as its candidate while the NPP has also picked Mr Mutaru Iddrisu.
The incumbent CPP MP has also filed to contest for the second time. But this time round he will not enjoy support from members of the NPP whose candidate is also an aspirant. This, political pundits say, puts Ras Mubarak in a comfortable position to upstage his competitors.
Mion: Results of the 2012 election in this constituency suggests that NDC is not in the best of shapes ahead of this year’s election. The seat is being held by Deputy Minister of Agriculture, Dr Ahmed Alhassan Yakubu. He defeated the NPP candidate with a margin of 551 votes. However, President Mahama defeated Nana Akufo-Addo with a margin of 4366 votes in the same constituency.
Based on this among and other reasons, NDC activists requested that Dr Yakubu be replaced with a new candidate for this year’s election to avert the calamity knocking at the doors of the ruling party. Delegates of the party heeded to this call by ditching Dr Yakubu. They replaced him with Mr Mohammed Abdul Aziz, who is a former Constituency Secretary for Tamale Central.
The new NDC candidate will do battle with NPP’s Mohammed Hashim Abdalla. Both of them will be contesting this year’s election for the first time. Despite the closeness in the margin of votes in the last election, Mr Mohammed Abdul Aziz is said to have restored confidence in NDC supporters. Based on this, the NDC is most likely to retain the Mion seat.
Nalerigu: This is also one of the swing seats in the Northern region. Like the Mion constituency, some NDC supporters had problem with the incumbent, Dr Alfred Sugri-Tia ahead of the 2012 elections. As a result of this, while President Mahama won with a margin of 2792 votes in this constituency, Dr Tia defeated the NPP candidate, Peter Wuni with just 420 votes.
Sensing that the NDC could lose the seat if the party fields Dr Tia for this year’s election, NDC delegates elected Mr Issifu Seidu as its candidate. The NPP has also elected former MP for the area and former Minister of Women and Children Affairs in the Kufuor government, Hajia Alima Mahama.
The stature of Hajia Alima Mahama in Ghana politics poses serious challenge to the NDC candidate. But reports suggest that Mr Issifu Seidu’s election has brought life to the hitherto nonchalant NDC supporters in the Nalerigu constituency. And this puts the NDC candidate ahead of the Hajia Alima.
Nanton: The NPP and NDC have both won this seat at one point time. The seat is presently being held by a deputy Minister of Trade and Industry, Hon Ibrahim Mohammed Murtala. He has been reelected to do battle with NPP’s Alhaji Mohammed Hardi Tuferu.
In the 2012 election, Hon Ibrahim Mohammed Murtala snatched the seat from the NPP with a margin of 1702 votes. He has vowed to retain the seat but the NPP candidate has also pledged to recapture the seat for his party. Though the incumbent NDC MP is tipped to retain the seat, infighting among party supporters, if not properly resolved, may block his chances.
Saboba: This is also a swing seat. The incumbent NDC MP, Bukari Nikpe Joseph won it in the last election with a margin of 676 votes. The NPP candidate he defeated in 2012, Mr Charles Binipom Bintim, has again been elected to represent his party. A keen contest is expected in this constituency.
An activist of the NDC, Mr Joseph Amuzu, has filed to contest as an independent candidate. This is likely to jeopardize the NDC’s chances of retaining the seat.
Sagnarigu: This seat was one of the 45 constituencies created ahead of the 2012 elections. It is being held by the deputy Northern regional minister, Alhaji A B A Fuseini. He defeated his NPP opponent with a margin of 22573 votes.
In this year’s election, he will square off with NPP’s Mr Iddrisu Habib. Though the primary that elected Hon Fuseini was marred, resulting in divisions among the rank and file of the party, the incumbent MP is tipped to retain the seat.
Salaga North: Originally called Salaga constituency, this constituency was divided into two; Salaga North and South. The area remains an NDC dominated area. The NDC’s Alhassan Mumuni won the seat with a margin of 3310 votes.
The NPP has elected Alhaji Alhassan Abila in a bid to snatch the seat from the NDC, but indications are that he may not be able to deny the ruling party the opportunity to remain in control of the seat.
Salaga South: This constituency came into being as a result of the splitting of the Salaga constituency ahead of the 2012 election. Incumbent NDC MP, Hon Ibrahim Dey, for the “original” Salaga constituency contested in this constituency and retained the seat for the NDC. He defeated his NPP opponent with a margin of 2255 votes.
In the upcoming election, Hon Ibrahim Dey is facing stiffer challenge from NPP candidate, Mr Salifu Adam Braimah, who has vowed to beat the incumbent MP. Reports suggest that though the contest will be keen, the NDC candidate stands a better chance of retaining the seat.
Savelugu: This is a no-go-area for the opposition NPP. The area is dominated by the ruling NDC. The closest NPP came to winning the seat was in the 2012 election when the party’s candidate, Mr Mohammed Abdul Samed Gunu, lost to the incumbent NDC MP, Hajia Mary Salifu Boforo with a margin of 3863 votes.
Many say the NPP candidate narrowed the margin of votes in the last election due to Hajia Boforo’s waned popularity. To avert a possible defeat in the 2016 election, NDC delegates elected Mr Abdulai Alhassan Red ahead of the incumbent MP for this year’s election.
This, some say, has restored the lost confidence some supporters of the party have in the ruling party. But supporters of Hajia Boforo are still licking their wounds and have vowed to vote against the party’s parliamentary candidate.
An independent candidate, Mr Alhassan Bunglung, has emerged from the NDC and this is threatening the party’s chances of retaining the seat. Though the independent candidate may not, he may split NDC votes and that will give the NPP candidate a leeway to win the seat.
The NPP has reelected its 2012 parliamentary candidate, Mr Mohammed Abdul Samed Gunu, to do battle with the new NDC candidate.
Sawla/Tuna/Kalba: This constituency will witness a contest between two newly elected candidates for both NDC and NPP. Both the incumbent NDC and NPP’s 2012 parliamentary candidate have been replaced with new candidates.
The outgoing NDC MP, Hon Donald Dari Soditey, retained the seat with a margin of 3598 votes and there are no indications that the NPP will snatch the seat from the ruling party in this year’s election.
Tamale Central: This constituency was created ahead of the 2004 elections. It is one of three constituencies that form the Northern regional capital, Tamale. The NPP has not won any of the parliamentary elections in this constituency. Indeed, the party’s performance has not been impressive.
The seat is presently being held by Minister of Roads and Highways, Alhaji Inusah Fuseini. He assumed control of the seat in 2006 through a bye election. Since his ascension to the “throne”, he has proved very difficult opponent for the NPP to beat.
In the 2012 election, Alhaji Inusah Fuseini defeated the NPP candidate with a margin of 15784 votes. He has been reelected as the party’s candidate. This time round he is slugging it out with Dr. Barhama Ibrahim A. Imoro of the opposition NPP. This constituency remains one of the strongholds of the NDC that the party will retain in any election.
Tamale North: Is among seats in the Northern region that the governing NDC lost in the 2012 elections as a result of infighting. The area has been dominated by the ruling party. The NDC’s 2012 candidate, Alhaji Abubakari Sumani, lost the seat to an independent candidate, Hon Alhassan Dahamani, with a margin of 694 votes.
Hon Alhassan Dahamani contested the NDC’s primary ahead of the 2012 election but lost to Alhaji Abubakari Sumani. He however succeeded when he contested the main election as an independent candidate. Though the NDC candidate lost, President Mahama whipped Nana Akufo-Addo with a margin of 15832 votes.
Ahead of this year’s election, the NDC has elected former Morning Show Host of Accra-based Radio Gold, Alhaji Alhassan Saibu Suhuyini. The former Radio Gold Morning Show Host has since his victory at the party’s primary been able to resolve the wrangling in the NDC and there are clear indications that he will recapture the seat for the party. His NPP opponent, Hajia Kulsumi Mohammed and other candidates have been dwarfed by Alhaji Suhuyini’s impressive campaign.
Tamale South: This seat was created ahead of 2004 elections and it has been represented by Minister of Employment, Hon Haruna Iddrisu. The NPP has never won this seat. Like Tamale North, the NPP’s performance in all elections in this constituency has not been impressive.
This seat is one of the safest seats of the NDC in the Northern region. Hon Iddrisu defeated his NPP opponent with a margin of 36925 votes. He has pledged to garner 70000 votes in pursuit of President Mahama’s one touch victory.
The NPP has replaced its 2012 candidate with Mr Yakubu Yussif. But he may not be able to win the seat for the NPP for the first time.
Tatale/Sanguli: This seat was one of the 45 seats the EC created ahead of the 2012 elections. It is one of the seats in the Northern region that may swing to the NDC. Ahead of the 2012 elections, the NDC was divided, resulting in one of the candidates who lost the NDC primary contesting as an independent candidate.
Then NPP candidate, Hon James C Yanwube, took advantage of the rift in the NDC to win the seat for the NPP. He defeated the independent candidate, Thomas Brepong Laten with a margin of 36 votes. The margin of votes between Hon James C Yanwube and the NDC candidate, Jagri Mohammed, was 925 votes. However, President Mahama defeated Nana Akufo-Addo with a little over 1000 votes even though the NDC candidate lost the election.
Surprisingly, the NPP is battling with the problem that rocked the NDC ahead of the 2012 elections. After losing the NPP primary in 2014 to Mr Thomas Nbomba, the outgoing NPP MP has filed to contest the seat as an independent candidate.
In the midst of this, the NDC is rallying behind its candidate, Tampi Acheampong Simon. Members of the NDC have stated that even without division in the NPP in the constituency, the party will still snatch the seat from the opposition party. According to them feuding factions have buried the hatchet and are ready to work in unison towards winning the seat.
Tolon: The NPP for the first time won the Tolon Constituency seat in the 2012 election and the party is determined to retain it this year. But the ruling NDC that has held the seat since 1992 until it lost it to the NPP in 2012, has vowed to recapture the seat in this year’s election.
The NPP parliamentary candidate for this year’s election, Alhaji Wahab Suhiyini Wumbei, who is also the incumbent MP, is seen as the front runner in the upcoming parliamentary election in the constituency but, NDC candidate, Alhaji Umar Abdul Razak, who lost the seat to the incumbent in 2012, is determined to wrest the seat from his opponent
The NPP candidate defeated his NDC opponent with a margin of 2414 votes. From the looks of things, the election in this constituency will be keenly contested and any of the two candidates can win.
Walewale: This constituency presents one of the interesting contests in the political annals of the Northern region. The seat has alternated between the NDC, PNC and NPP. It is presently being held by Hon Sagre Bambangi who won it for the first time for the NPP with a margin of 4136 votes in the last election.
Though the margin of win would have proved that it will be difficult for the NDC to upstage the NPP in this year’s election, the dynamics ahead of this year’s election seem to favor the ruling party. The NDC has elected PNC’s 2012 candidate for the area, Hon Abdallah Abubakari, as the party’s candidate for this year’s election.
Hon Abdallah Abubakari is the present Northern regional Minister. In 2012 when he contested on the ticket of the PNC, he polled a little over 10,000 votes, placing him at third position. According to political pundits, the regional Minister’s election as the NDC candidate will make it very difficult for the incumbent NPP MP, Hon Sagre Bambangi to retain the seat.
Wulensi: Though the two leading parties have won this seat at one point in time, none of them can claim absolute control over the Wulensi seat. The seat is presently being held by NDC’s Laliri George Maban. He defeated his NPP opponent with a margin of 1027 votes. The defeated NPP candidate has been reelected to face the NDC MP in this year’s election. Any of the two candidates should be able to win the seat.
Yagaba-Kubori: This constituency was regarded safe seat of the NDC until 2012 when that myth was broken by NPP’s Ussif Mustapha. The NPP candidate defeated the then incumbent NDC MP, Alhaji Abdul Rauf Tanko with a margin of 667 votes.
The margin of votes in the last election suggests that the present NPP MP cannot claim automatic second term victory in this year’s election. Like other constituencies in the Northern region, the NDC lost this seat in 2012 because of squabbling ahead of the election.
Alhaji Rauf Tanko has staged a comeback after being reelected by the NDC at the primary. He is presently the Chairman of the Pilgrims Affairs Office of Ghana. His successful handling of Hajj organization since he took over in 2013 has earned commendations from many Ghanaians including, President John Mahama and National Chief Imam, Sheikh Dr Nuhu Sharubutu.
Notwithstanding the Hajj boss’ enviable record which is playing to his advantage in this year’s election in Yagaba-Kubori, recapturing the seat for the NDC in this year’s election will not come on a silver platter. There are reports that the incumbent NPP has embarked on some life changing projects in the constituency that is resonating with the electorates.
What may help Alhaji Rauf Tanko recapture the seat is the prevailing relative peace and unity among supporters of the NDC in the constituency unlike the situation ahead of the 2012 elections. The NPP MP must therefore gird his loins to avoid a defeat.
Yapei/Kusawgu: The NDC has been in control of this seat for some time now. However, the party’s fortune has been shrinking after every election. In the 2012 elections, the incumbent MP, Alhaji Amadu Seidu struggled to beat the NPP’s Alhaji Yakubu Zakaria, with a margin of 667 votes.
This abysmal performance was partly attributed to the waning popularity of the MP. Ahead of the NDC’s nationwide primaries in 2015, there was apprehension among NDC supporters that if Alhaji Seidu was reelected to lead the party, the NDC would lose the seat to NPP.
In what came as welcomed news to NDC followers in the constituency, the incumbent MP did not seek reelection. His place has since been taken by the deputy Minister of Power, John Abdulai Jinapor. The deputy Power Minister is battling with the 2012 NPP candidate, Alhaji Zakaria who nearly won the seat for the opposition party.
The election of Hon Jinapor is said to have dashed the NPP’s dream of winning the seat. The deputy Minister is tipped to retain the seat for the NDC with a bigger margin.
Yendi: The NPP has been in control of this seat from the last election. The NDC, on the other hand, has since been battling and putting together strategies to reclaim the seat from the biggest opposition party in this year’s election. The seat is presently being held by Alhaji Mohammed Habib Tijani of the NPP.
He won the seat in the last election with a margin of 8733 votes. According regional executives of the NPP, the Yendi seat, together with the Bimbilla seat and others are seats that the NDC cannot take away from the NPP.
But NDC executives in the constituency led by its Chairman, Mr Mohammed Ibrahim and parliamentary candidate, Mr Hamza Yahaya Alikali have vowed to recapture the seat.
According to them the work the party has done in the constituency since the party lost the seat to the NPP in the last election coupled with assurances from the people as was manifested in the last District Assembly election indicates that “we are on course to reclaim the seat.”
“Tijani (NPP Candidate) has lost the ground. He has lost the trust of the people. One of the things that also helped him to win the seat is the chieftaincy problem we have here between the Andanis and the Abudus. Fortunately for us, the youths are now discerning; they are no longer going to fall for lies; now what they are thinking of is how to develop themselves and we as a party have offered them opportunities to enhance their skills. Tijani can no longer go to them. He knows it himself,” the confident-looking NDC chairman narrated.
Yunyoo: This constituency was carved out of the original Bunkprugu-Yunyoo constituency. It is one of the 45 seats the EC created ahead of the 2012 elections. Mr Naabu Joseph Bipoba won it for the NDC with a margin of 5273 votes.
The NPP candidate who lost to him has been replaced with Mr Liwaal Oscar. But pundits say the incumbent MP is much favored to retain the seat for the ruling party.
Zabzugu: This seat was originally called Zabzugu-Tatale until 2012 when it was divided into Zabzugu and Tatale-Sanguli constituencies. Both NDC and NPP have once won the Zabzugu/Tatale constituency.
When the Zabzugu constituency was left to stand on its own in the 2012 election, Mr Jabaah John Bennam won it for the NPP with a margin of 1087 votes. The 2012 NDC candidate, Mr Alhassan Umar who lost with the marginal votes has been reelected as the party’s candidate for this year’s election.
The race in this constituency is open and any of the two candidates can win the seat for their respective parties.
The Eastern Region has been a stronghold of the NPP since 2000. In 1992, the party did not contest the parliamentary election. In 1996, the NDC won 15 parliamentary seats out of the 26 seats in the region.
The NPP has since won majority of seats in subsequent elections. In 2000, the NPP won 18 out of the 26 seats; in 2004, the party won 22 out of the 28 seats; in 2008, 20 seats out of the 28 and in 2012, when the parliamentary seat was increased to 33, the NPP won 26 seats.
In 2012, the NDC lost the Asuogyman to the NPP but managed to snatch the Akwatia seat for the first time from the NPP. According to the NDC, it has targeted 15 parliamentary seats in the Eastern region.
The NPP has also vowed to increase its parliamentary seats in this year’s election. One of the seats the NPP is targeting to win is Akwatia which the party lost due to infighting ahead of the 2012 elections.
Going into the December 7 elections and, based on results of the 2012 polls as well as political activities on the ground, there are five parliamentary seats that may swing in this year’s elections in the Eastern region. These seats are Akwatia, Suhum, Fanteakwa North, Abirem and Ofoase Ayirebi. Four of these seats are being held by NPP whilst NDC controls only one.
The NPP’s 2016 presidential candidate, Nana Akufo-Addo hails from this region. Ironically, his election as leader of the NPP since 2008 has not aided the NPP in terms of maximizing its votes. In the last election, the NDC garnered 42 percent against NPP’s 56 percent in the presidential elections.
However, in President John Mahama’s home region, he polled 58 percent against Nana Akufo-Addo’s 39 percent. The NPP’s inability to get bloc votes from this region is due to the fact that, unlike Ashanti region, the Eastern has a lot of settler communities. The party has slumped in all elections in the Afram Plains and Krobo areas.
No Constituency NDC Candidate NPP Candidate
1 Abetifi Tabi Emmanuel Bryan Acheampong
2 Abirem Mavis Ama Frimpong John Frimpong Osei
3 Abuakwa North Victor Emmanuel Smith Gifty Twum Ampofo
4 Abuakwa South Owuraku Amofah Samuel Atta Kyea
5 Achiase Yaw Sam Kwachie Robert Kwasi Amoah
6 Afram Plains North Betty Kroisby Mensah Isaac Ofori Koree
7 Afram Plains South Eric Osei Owusu William Hor
8 Akim Oda Kwabena Asare Nkansah William Agyapong Quaittoo
9 Akim Swedru Robert Kwame Ansah Kennedy Osei Nyarko
10 Akwapim North Yaw Appiah-Kubi Nana Ama Dokua Asiamah
11 Akwapim South Lawrencia Adwoa Dziwornu Osei Bonsu Amoah
12 Akwatia Ahmed Baba Jamal Mercy Ady Gyamfi
13 Asene/Akroso/Manso Roland Richard Acquaah Yaw Owusu-Boateng
14 Asuogyaman Thomas Ampem Nyarko Kwame Adu-Darkwa
15 Atiwa East Foster Asante Abena Osei-Asare
16 Atiwa West Joseph Owusu Sarpong Kwasi Amoako Attah
17 Ayensuano Teddy Nana Yaw Addy Ayeh-paye Samuel
18 Fanteakwa North Abass Fuseini Sbaabe Kwabena Amankwah Asiamah
19 Fanteakwa South Abigail Elorm Mensah Kofi Okyere-Agyekum
20 Kade George Agyeman Duah Kwabena Tinase
21 Lower Manya Krobo Ebenezer Okletey Terlabi Samuel Nuertey Ayertey
22 Lower West Akim Shirley Naana Osei-Ampem Eyiah Kyei Boffour
23 Mpraeso Koree Boakye Emmanuel Seth Kwame Acheampong
24 New Juaben North Haruna Apaw Wiredu Nana Adjei Boateng
25 New Juaben South Ransford Owusu Boakye Dr. Mark Assibey-Yeboah
26 Nkawkaw Tamimu Halidu Emmanuel Ampomah
27 Nsawam Adoagyiri Benedicta Oyo Quartey Asante Frank Annoh Dompreh
28 Ofoase/Ayirebi Tom Budu Kenneth Kojo Oppong Nkrumah
29 Okere Michael Ofori Ofei Daniel Botwe
30 Suhum Margaret Ansei Frederick Opare-Ansah
31 Upper Manya Krobo Jeff T. Kevianu Joseph Tetteh
32 Upper West Akim Derek Ohene Assiful-Bekoe Eugene Sackey
33 Yilo Krobo Magnus Kofi Amoatey Francis Djetse Appertey
Abetifi: Since its creation in 1992, the NDC has never won this seat. Though NDC took advantage of NPP’s boycott of the 1992 elections to win majority of the parliamentary elections, the NDC could not win the Abetifi seat. The late Opoku Preku won the seat for the National Convention Party in 1992 elections.
In 1996, the NPP won the seat and has maintained a firm grip on it till date. The Abetifi seat is presently being held by NPP’s Bryan Acheampong. Mr Acheampong became MP for the area early this year through a bye election following the death of the then incumbent MP, Mr Peter Wiafe.
The NDC did not participate in the bye election in honor of the late MP. The NPP candidate had jolly ride to victory as he defeated his main contender, an independent candidate, with a whopping margin of 13546 votes.
In the 2012 election, the late NPP MP defeated the NDC candidate, Mr Samuel Asamoah with a margin of 9002 votes. In this year’s election, the ruling party has fielded a new candidate, Mr Tabi Emmanuel. Though he is enjoying the support of the members of the NDC and in the constituency, he is not likely to beat NPP’s Bryan Acheampog.
Abirem: Formerly known as Birim North constituency, this constituency is one of the strongholds of the NPP. Except the 1992 election which the party boycotted, the NPP has won all five parliamentary elections in this constituency. The NCP won the 1992 election in the Birim North constituency.
Until the 2012 elections, the constituency was a no go area for the NDC. The NPP nearly lost the seat in the last election when Madam Mavis Frimpong lost to the outgoing NPP MP, Madam Esther Obeng Dapaah, with a margin of 2832 votes.
NPP supporters and strategists attributed the NDC candidate’s impressive performance to Madam Obeng Dapaah’s waned popularity. Thus, in 2014 delegates of the party elected Mr John Frimpong Osei ahead of the incumbent MP as the party’s 2016 parliamentary candidate.
The NDC, on the other hand, has retained Madam Frimpong as the party’s candidate for this year’s election. The NDC candidate is presently the Eastern regional Minister. With her exploits in the constituency so far, there are fears that she may snatch the seat from the NPP for the first time for the NDC.
Abuakwa North: This seat was created in 2004 as a result of the division of the Abuakwa seat into two. The NPP has won all elections in the Abuakwa constituency except the 1992 election which it did not contest.
The Abuakwa North seat is presently being held by a former tutor of Akosombo International School, Mrs Gifty Twum Ampofo. Mrs Ampofo was elected early this year through a bye election following the killing of Hon J B Daquah Adu at his Shiashie residence. The NDC boycotted the bye election in memory of the late MP.
In 2014, the NDC elected Mr Anthony Gyimah as its candidate. But for very strange reasons, Mr Gyimah stepped down and his place has been taken by Ghana’s High Commissioner to the UK, Mr Emmanuel Victor Smith. Mr Smith contested the Abuakwa North seat in the 2012 election but lost to the late JB Danquah with a margin of 6503 votes.
He has vowed to crash the incumbent NPP MP at the December polls. But the circumstances leading to Mr Smith’s emergence as the party’s candidate, is said to have created discontent among some supporters of the NDC loyal to Mr Gyimah. This many say may thwart Mr Smith’s dream of winning the seat. The incumbent NPP is much favored to retain the seat for the opposition party.
Abuakwa South: This constituency is a no go area for the ruling party. It is the NPP’s three time flag bearer, Nana Akufo-Addo’s ‘home’ constituency. He served as MP for the area for 12 years before becoming flag bearer of the NPP.
The seat is presently being held by Hon Samuel Atta Kyea who won it with a whopping margin of 22421 votes in the last election. In this year’s election, Mr Owuraku Amofah, who won the Abuakwa seat in 1992 on the ticket of EGLE party, has been elected as NDC’s candidate.
A native of the royal family in Kyibi, he has been tipped to give the incumbent NPP MP a run for his money, but he may not be able to win the seat.
Achiase: This seat was among the 45 seats created in 2012. Mr Robert Kwasi Amoah became the first person to represent the area in the law making House on the ticket of the NPP. He defeated the NDC candidate, Mr Kwasi Akyem Apea-Kubi, who was then the Eastern regional Minister, with a margin of 5891 votes.
The NDC has elected Mr Yaw Sam Kwachie to test his popularity with the incumbent NPP MP. Reports from the area suggest that the NPP candidate is most likely to retain the seat.
Afram Plains North: This is one of the strongholds of the NDC in the Eastern region. It is also one of settler constituencies in the region. Since it was created in 2004, the NDC has won all parliamentary elections in this constituency.
The NPP is not unaware of their deficiency in this constituency. As a result, both Nana Addo and Dr Bawumia in separate visits implored the constituents to change their voting pattern in the December 7 election.
In the last election, the NDC candidate, Hon Emmanuel Aboagye Didieye won with a margin of 12194 votes. In this year’s election however, Hon Didieye has been replaced with Madam Betty Kroisby Mensah. Though the NDC is struggling to unite its ranks in this constituency, the party will still retain the seat.
Afram Plains South: Like the Afram Plains North constituency, this seat was also created in 2004. It is also a settler constituency and has remained NDC stronghold. In the 2012 election, the NDC candidate, Hon Joseph Appiah Boateng retained the seat with a margin of 7593 votes.
In 2015, Hon Joseph Appiah Boateng was again elected as the party’s candidate for this year’s polls. However, he withdrew from the race at the eleventh hour due to a court injunction secured by one Dickson Adjei Danso restraining him from contesting.
Lawyer for Mr Adjei Danso, Mr Effah Dartey explained that “in 1998/99, the Honourable MP, then known as Joseph Appiah, run away from a criminal case involving him at the Osu Police Station. According to Adjei Danso’s lawyer, the Honourable MP changed his name to Charles Yeboah and travelled to New Zealand. Along the line, he got involved in a case of fraud and was convicted in Auckland and deported back home to Ghana.”
His place has been taken by Mr Eric Osei Owusu who lost to him at the primary. The constituency has been divided as a result of a failed attempt by Eastern regional secretary of the NDC, Mr Mark Oliver-Kevor to take over from Hon Boateng. Despite these undercurrents, the NDC is most favored to retain the seat.
Akim Oda: This is a no go area for the NDC. Except 1992 where the party took advantage of the NPP’s boycott to win the seat, subsequent elections have not favored the party. The seat is presently being held by Hon William Agyapong Quaittoo. He won with a margin of 12667 votes.
The NDC’s 2012 parliamentary candidate, Mr Kwabena Asare Nkansah has been reelected to do battle with the incumbent MP again. But the facts on the ground suggest that he cannot upstage Hon Quaittoo.
Akim Swedru: This is also another no-go-area for the NDC. Except 1992 where the party won the seat, the NPP has since won all subsequent elections. In the last election, the NPP candidate, Hon Kennedy Osei Nyarko won with a margin of 5332.
In this year’s election, the NDC’s 2012 parliamentary candidate, Mr Robert Samuel Ansah and the incumbent NPP MP have once again lock horns. But the incumbent MP is most likely to triumph over the NDC candidate.
Akwapim North: Originally called the Akropong constituency, the NPP has won all elections in this constituency since it was created in 2004. The seat is being held by Hon W O Boafo. He won the last election with a margin of 11240 votes.
In 2014, NPP delegates ditched him for relatively young Nana Ama Dokua Asiamah. The NDC has also replaced its 2012 candidate with Mr Yaw Appiah-Kubi. Both the NDC and NPP candidates are contesting the election for the first time.
Based on results of the previous elections, the NPP candidate is most favored to retain the seat for the party. However, the NDC is likely to improve on its 2012 record.
Akwapim South: Again, the NPP has won all elections in this constituency except 1992 when the party boycotted the parliamentary polls. Even with the absence of the NPP in 1992, the NDC could not win the seat. The NCP’s David Adu-Tutu defeated the NDC candidate in that election.
The seat is presently being held by former deputy Minister of Sports in the Kufour government, Hon Osei Bonsu Amoah. He won the last election with a margin of 4026 votes. The voting pattern shows that the NDC has been improving on its records in every election.
The NDC has elected relatively young Madam Lawrencia Adwoa Dziwornu to face Hon O B Amoah. Though the incumbent NPP is tipped to retain the seat, the NDC candidate may further narrow the gap.
Akwatia: This is one of constituencies in the Eastern region that will be hotly contested. This year’s election will settle the argument over which of the two parties has control over the seat. Whilst the NDC has won three out of the six elections (1992, 1996 and 2012), the NPP has also won three (2000, 2004 and 2008).
Deputy Minister of Employment and Labor Relations, Hon Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed is presently the MP for the area. He won the seat with only 557 votes. The margin of victory indicates that the Akwatia seat is not a seat that the NDC can count as one of the seats the party will automatically retain in this year’s election.
Hon Baba Jamal is fighting a battle of his life to prevent NPP’s Mercy Adu Gyamfi from snatching the seat from him. The deputy Minister appears to be in a precarious situation ahead of the December elections because of cracks within the ruling party in the constituency. The race is opened as any of the two candidates can win.
Asene/Akroso/Manso: This was one of the 45 seats created in 2012. In the last election, Mr Yaw Owusu-Boateng won it for the NPP with a margin of 6116 votes. He has been reelected again to face the NDC candidate, Mr Richard Roland Acquaah, whom he defeated in 2012. The NPP MP is highly tipped to go pass the NDC candidate once again in this year’s election.
Asuogyaman: This seat has alternated between the two dorminant parties. However, the NDC has had the lion share in terms of control of the seat. The NDC has won four out of the six elections whereas the NPP has won two.
The seat is presently being held by Hon Kofi Osei Ameyaw. He was defeated in 2008 elections as incumbent MP but returned in 2012 to recapture the seat. He won with a margin of 2100 votes. He is however not seeking reelection. His place has been taken by Mr Kwame Adu-Darkwa.
The new NPP candidate will face the DCE for the area, Hon Thomas Ampem Nyarko. Though the NPP is tipped to retain the seat, it may nonetheless swing to the NDC.
Atiwa East and West: In 2012, the Atiwa constituency was divided into Atiwa East and West constituencies. The Atiwa constituency is a stronghold of the biggest opposition party. When the seat was divided into two, NPP parliamentary candidates for Atiwa East and West won the seats with margins of 9999 and 11192, votes respectively. The NDC may not be able to snatch the seats from the NPP in this year’s election.
Ayensuano: The NPP has won four out of the last six elections in this constituency. The NDC last won the seat in 1996 and has since been struggling to recapture it. The NCP won the seat in 1992 when the NPP boycotted the polls.
In the 2012 elections, incumbent NPP MP, Hon Samuel Ayeh-Paye won the seat with a margin of 5015 votes. He has been reelected as the party’s candidate to face NDC’s Mr Teddy Nana Yaw Addy. Though the NDC candidate is said to be exploiting his youthfulness to win the youth to his side, the incumbent NPP candidate is highly tipped to retain the seat.
Nkawkaw: Except in the 1992 when the NPP did not participate in the parliamentary elections, the party has won four parliamentary elections in this constituency with huge margins. In 2008, the NPP lost the seat to an independent candidate, Hon Seth Adjei Baah.
The NPP regained control over the seat in the last election. In 2012, the NPP candidate, Hon Eric Kwakye Darfour whipped the NDC candidate, Mr Alex Somuah Obeng with a margin of 20256 votes. Both the incumbent NPP MP and NDC’s 2012 candidate are not contesting in this year’s election.
The NPP has elected Mr Emmanuel Ampomah to face NDC’s Mr Tamimu Halidu. Though the NDC may not deprive the NPP of the seat, there are indications that Mr Halidu may bridge the gap between the two parties. The NDC candidate however is not well resourced to give the NPP candidate tough opposition in this year’s election.
Nsawam Adoagyiri- This was one of the seats created in 2012. It was carved out of the Akwapim South constituency. The last parliamentary election was keenly contested by NPP’s Frank Annoh-Dompreh and NDC’s Ben Ohene Ayeh. The NPP candidate succeeded in defeating the NDC candidate with a margin of 2411 votes.
In this year’s election, Hon Annoh-Dompreh is facing another stiff contest from NDC’s Benedicta Oyo Quartey Asante. Though the incumbent NPP MP is tipped to retain the seat, the NDC candidate may spring a surprise giving the closeness of results of the last election.
Ofoase-Ayirebi: This constituency was created in 2004. And since its creation, the NPP has won all elections in this constituency. In the 2012 elections, the incumbent NPP MP, Hon David Oppong-Kusi defeated the NDC candidate, Hon Tom Budu Kenneth with a margin of 5485 votes.
Mr Tom Budu has been reelected as the NDC’s candidate for this year’s election. He is battling with Mr Kojo Oppong Nkrumah who was elected in an acrimonious primary in 2014. The NPP’s control of the seat is being threatened by Mr Oppong Nkrumah’s main contender in the primary, Mr John Obiri-Yeboah.
Mr Obiri-Yeboah decamped to the PPP after losing the primary to Mr Oppong Nkrumah with a margin of 74 votes. The PPP candidate is said to be very popular in the constituency. There are fears among NPP supporters that if Mr Obiri-Yebaoh’s popularity translates into votes, it will give the NDC candidate advantage over the NPP candidate.
Okere: The NPP has won four out of the six parliamentary elections in this constituency. The NCP won the seat in 1992 and the NDC also won it in 1996. In the 2000 election, the NPP snatched the seat from the NDC with a margin of 9 votes. The biggest opposition party has since maintained firm grip on the seat.
In the last parliamentary polls, incumbent NPP MP, Hon Dan Botwe retained the seat with a margin of 5485 votes. The emergence of Hon Dan Botwe as NPP’s candidate is making it difficult for the NDC to recapture the seat.
In the 2008 and 2012 election when the DCE for the area contested on the ticket of the NDC, Hon Botwe defeated him in both elections with wide margins. In this year’s election, Hon Dan Botwe is facing competition from NDC’s Mr Michael Ofori Ofei. Though Mr Ofori Ofei is giving Hon Dan Botwe a run for his money, the latter is most likely to retain the seat.
Suhum: The NDC controlled this seat until 2000 when the NPP snatched it from them. The NPP has since controlled the seat till today. The only time the NDC came close to recapturing it was in the last election when Mr Julius Debrah lost with a margin of 388 votes to the incumbent NPP MP, Hon Frederick Opare Ansah.
Mr Debrah’s place has been taken by the MCE for the area. Magoo, as the NDC candidate is affectionately called, has not been able to unite the party after the primary. Some supporters of the party have threatened to vote skirt and blouse.
These peeved NDC supporters, mainly supporters of the former MCE who lost the primary, followed up their threat with a banner early this year bearing the image of the NPP candidate and President Mahama. The NDC candidate lacks the clout Mr Debrah exuded to give the NPP MP stiff battle in this year’s election.
Upper Manya Krobo: This is also one of the settler constituencies in the Eastern region. Like Lower Manya Krobo, the NDC has won all six parliamentary elections. The NPP is yet to make any meaningful electoral impact in this constituency.
In the last election, incumbent NDC MP, Jeff T. Kevianu defeated the NPP candidate, Mr Moses Tetteh Barimah with a margin of 7020 votes. The NPP has replaced its 2012 candidate with Mr Joseph Tetteh but he may not be able to upstage the incumbent MP.
Upper West Akim: Unlike the Lower West Akim, the NDC has won all elections in the Upper West Akim constituency since it was created in 1992. In the 2012 election, incumbent NDC MP, Hon Joseph Sam Amankwanor defeated the NPP candidate with a margin of 3763 votes.
The NDC MP was elected in 2015 to contest the December 7 election but had to resign early this year over unknown reasons. He has been replaced with Mr Derek Ohene Assiful-Bekoe. The NDC is highly tipped to retain the seat.
Yilo Krobo: Like other constituencies in the Eastern region dominated by Ga Adangbes and settlers, the Yilo Krobo constituency has voted en-bloc for the NDC since it was created in 1992. In the last election, incumbent NDC MP, Hon Magnus Kofi Amoatey won with a whopping margin of 12074 votes. He is highly tipped to go pass the NPP candidate, Mr Francis Djetse Appertey, once again on December 7.
Like their counterparts in the Greater Accra, Central and Brong Ahafo regions, voters in the Western region hold the key to victory for any of the two leading political parties on December 7. Voting pattern in the region since 1996, has alternated between the ruling NDC and the opposition NPP.
The region has been a battle ground for the two parties. In the last six elections, minus the 1992 polls, any of the two parties that amassed majority votes and seats in this region ended up winning the main election.
In the 1996, 2008 and 2012 elections, the NDC won majority seats in this region and won the main elections. In the 2000 and 2004 elections when the NDC lost many of its seats in the Western region, it lost the main elections.
Having boycotted the 1992 parliamentary election, the NPP contested the 1996 election but managed to win only 3 out of the 19 parliamentary seats. At the end, the party lost the main in election. However, in the 2000 elections, the NPP increased its seats from 3 to 9. This placed the party on the same level as the NDC in terms of the number of parliamentary seats.
Despite the tie in terms of the parliamentary seats with the remaining one seat going to the CPP, the NPP won majority votes in the presidential election to defeat the NDC in the main polls.
In 2004 when the parliamentary seats in the Western region were increased from 19 to 22, NPP won 12 seats; 8 seats went to the NDC and CPP grabbed two. With this impressive result in the region, NPP was retained in power in the 2012 general elections.
After losing two consecutive elections, the NDC came back strongly in 2008 to increase its parliamentary seats in the Western region from 8 to 12 thereby leaving the NPP with 9 seats while CPP won the remaining seat.
In 2012 however, the EC created additional four seats to add to the existing 22 seats in the Western region. These seats are Aowin, Bodi, Mpohor and Prestea Huni Valley. In the last election, the NPP met its Waterloo in the Western region after it won only eight out of 26 constituencies to the utter shock and dismay of the elephant party supporters.
The NPP won the Sekondi, Effia, Kwesimintsim, Tarkwa-Nsuaem, Bibiani-Anhwiaso-Bekwai, Takoradi, Essikado-Ketan and Mpohor seats.
The NDC, on the other hand, increased its seats from 12 in 2008 to 18. The seats NDC captured included, Aowin, Amenfi West, Amenfi Central and Amenfi East. Others are Bia East, Bia West, Ellembelle, Evalue-Gwira, Ahanta West and Sefwi Wiawso. The rest are Prestea – Huni Valley, Shama, Suaman, Akontombra, Bodi, Jomoro and Juaboso.
In this year’s election, the two parties have made ambitious projections in terms of the number of seats they intend to win. While the NDC is projecting to increase it seats from 18 to 20, the NPP is also targeting majority win in the presidential votes in the region.
The outcome of the last parliamentary election in the oil-rich region and happenings in the two political parties indicate there are seven parliamentary seats that may swing in this year’s election. The NPP controls four of these seats while the NDC holds three.
Seats the NDC controls and are likely to swing to the opposition NPP on December 7 are Ahanta West, Sefwi Akontombra and Shama. On the NPP side, the Mpohor, Sekondi, Tarkwa Nsuaem and Kwesimintsim seats may swing to the NDC.
No. Constituency NDC Candidate NPP Candidate
1 Ahanta West George Kwame Aboagye Ebenezer Kojo Kum
2 Amenfi Central Peter Kwakye Ackah Patrick Amponteng
3 Amenfi East Akwasi Opong Fosu Patrick Bogyako Samuel
4 Amenfi West Eric Afful Paul Dekyi
5 Aowin Kwame Ntow Mathias Samuel Adu Gyamfi
6 Bia East Richard Acheampong Anthony Nimoh
7 Bia West Dr. Augustine Tawiah John Koah
8 Biabiani Anhwiaso Bekwai Moses Armah Kingsley Aboagye-Gyedu
9 Bodi Sampson Ahi Kennedy Amoah-Mensah
10 Effia Michael Otoo Joseph Cudjoe
11 Ellembelle Emmanuel Armah Kofi Buah Kwasi Bonzoh
12 Essikado Joseph Kofi Mensah Joe Ghartey
13 Evalue Gwira Kwaku Tanekyi Kesse Catherine Ablema Afeku
14 Jomoro Thomas Elleamo Yankey Paul Essien
15 Juaboso Kwabena Mintah Akandoh Martha Kwayie Manu
16 Kwesiminstim Augustine Arthur Joseph Mensah
17 Mpohor Eric Kweku Kyeremeh Alexander Agyekum
18 Prestea Huni Valley Wisdom Cudjoe Barbara Oteng Gyasi
19 Sefwi Wiaso P